Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 5 листопада 2021

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Nov 05 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Nov 2021	093	026
06 Nov 2021	091	026
07 Nov 2021	091	007

Бюлетень

Only two C flares occurred during the period, the largest of which peaked at a C2.9 magnitude at 14:53UT, from the new region in the South East that is now numbered NOAA 2894. That new region awaits to be analysed in more detail. Meanwhile the unipolar region 2893 remained overall stable with some additional smaller spots emerging, while region 2891 remains the most complex on disc though showing signs of decay. C flares are quite likely, with a very small chance for an M flare.

No new Earth directed CMEs have been recorded in coronagraph data.

The more than 10MeV proton flux has returned almost to background conditions as is expected to remain at background conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence is at normal levels and is expected to increase from normal to moderate or even high levels over the next days in the wake of the enhanced Solar wind conditions.

Solar wind conditions were enhanced due to the CME passage that started late November 3. Solar wind speed followed a decaying trend to now under 600 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field also followed a decaying trend to now under 10nT while the Bz component was positive throughout the period. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next days as CME effects wane.

Geomagnetic conditions were initially at minor to moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp 6 and local K Dourbes 5) but as Bz remained positive during the period, only quiet to active conditions were recorded during the remainder of the period. Quiet to active conditions are expected in the next 24-48 hours with an overall decreasing trend, and initially still minor storm levels are possible depending on the Solar wind magnetic field orientation.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 035, за даними 21 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Nov 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	094
AK Chambon La Forêt	045
AK Wingst	043
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	051
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	026 - За даними 25 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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