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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2021 Dec 14 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Dec 2021	081	009
15 Dec 2021	082	016
16 Dec 2021	082	010

Бюлетень

Regions Catania 82, Catania 83/NOAA 2905, NOAA 2906 and Catania 84/NOAA 2907 are present on the visible solar disk. Region Catania 84 was the source of a C1.4-class flare recorded by GOES on Dec 14 08:36UT. C class flares are possible over the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE+DSCOVR) remained in the slow regime. The expected high-speed stream (HSS) emanating from the small equatorial negative polarity Coronal Hole (CH) that appeared on Dec 12 seems to have not had an impact yet. A southern negative polarity CH crossed central meridian on Dec 13. Its effects can be expected about Dec 15-16. The total magnetic field reached 8 nT, and its southward component, Bz, fluctuated between -6 nT and +7 nT in the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed had values ranging from 300 km/s to 335 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle has been varied since about Dec 13 19:00UT. Over the next 24 hours, we are expecting slight enhacements due to the effects afore mentioned HSS.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet tover the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K-BEL recorded values 0-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet over the next 24 hours with some unsettled periods in response to the influence of the wind stream associated with the small equatorial coronal hole.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 037, за даними 07 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Dec 2021

Число Вольфа, Катанія	035
Сонячний потік 10 см	081
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	004
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	022 - За даними 13 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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