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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Feb 15 1234 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
15 Feb 2022	105	006
16 Feb 2022	103	004
17 Feb 2022	100	005

Бюлетень

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941) was most active, producing a M1.0 flare peaking at 17:31UT Feb 14. The region is classified as beta-gamma but will soon rotate over the limb. Catania group 32 (NOAA region 2943) showed some re-emergence and new spot formation and produced a C4.7 flare peaking at 05:18UT. Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946) decayed over the period. The two new small regions that emerged over the last period have been numbered as Catania group 36 (NOAA region 2947, N15W60) and Catania group 37 (NOAA region 2948, S28E48). Both regions remain small and have a beta magnetic field configuration. A new region (Catania group 38) has rotated onto the disk but so far appears inactive. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a continued chance for an M-class flare, especially from Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941) before it rotates over the limb.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The threshold is expected to be exceeded again today. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels during the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed continued to show a decreasing trend, with values decreasing from 500 km/s to 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and local K Belgium 1-3). Quiet conditions with possible isolated unsettled intervals are expected over the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 086, за даними 12 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 14 Feb 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	008
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	067 - За даними 24 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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