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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 May 16 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
16 May 2022	153	011
17 May 2022	152	005
18 May 2022	150	002

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was low but frequent during the last 24 hours, with seven C-class flares detected and the strongest being a C5 today at 10:01 UT. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3015 produced three of the C-class flares, while the brightest flare was produced by an AR yet to turn into view, at N17E84. Another AR not yet visible from Earth's direction produced a C1 flare at S16E89 today at 05:01. NOAA AR 2015 and the two unnumbered AR are expected to produce more C-class activity in the next 24 hours. As the magnetic configuration of the two AR cannot be determined, there is a fair chance of an isolated M-class flare from any of those two AR during the coming 24 hours.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions (as measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites) are still typical of a fast SW regime. The SW speed dropped gradually from 570 to 480 km/s, during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field remained close to 10 nT for most of the time during the past 24 hours. Its Bz component varied between -6 and 8 nT during the same period. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly positive (directed away from the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to very gradually return to a slow wind regime.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally moderate (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain moderate and perhaps become quiet during the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 152, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 15 May 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	014
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	143 - За даними 27 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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