Перегляд архіву четвер, 2 червня 2022

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jun 02 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
02 Jun 2022	106	007
03 Jun 2022	108	007
04 Jun 2022	108	007

Бюлетень

Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity has been low. There was a C1.2 flare peaking at 06:20 UT, from the (unnumbered) active region rotating into view from the east limb. There are four active regions visible on the disk, NOAA AR 3025 rotated out of view over the west limb and 3026 and 3027 emerged, they have beta magnetic field configuration. The other two ARs are 3023 and 3024, with alpha magnetic field configuration. C-class flaring can be expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from the region that rotated into view over the east limb.

A wide CME (angular width around 100 degrees) was first seen at 06:12 UT by LASCO/C2, with a calculated 3D speed of 750 km/s. The CME originated from a filament eruption close to NOAA AR 3023 (S14W34). This CME has an Earth directed component with expected arrival around 01:00 UT on 5 June (with an error margin of 12 hours). Another filament erupted close to disk center around 01:00 UT on 1 June, but did not produce any relevant CME. Due to its location, a weak and narrow Earth directed CME can not be discarded, probably arriving together with the previous one, or close in time but with no significant impact expected.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron has been above the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. Since the high speed solar wind stream is not affecting the Earth anymore, it can be expected to decrease. The 24h electron fluence is at moderate levels, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind arriving to the Earth is slow, with speeds around 390 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 4 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (Kp=1, K_BEL=2). Over the next 24 hours, similar conditions are expected.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 063, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 01 Jun 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	081
Сонячний потік 10 см	104
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	015
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	011
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	065 - За даними 29 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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