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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jun 14 1252 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Jun 2022	132	015
15 Jun 2022	133	018
16 Jun 2022	130	008

Бюлетень

There are presently seven active regions observed on the visible side of the solar disc, majority having beta configuration of their photospheric magnetic field configuration. The most complex active region is still NOAA AR 3032 with the beta-gamma photospheric magnetic field configuration. During last 24 hours only seven C-class flares were reported, with the strongest one being GOES C8.5 flare (peaked at 21:24 UT on June 13) originating from the NOAA AR 3032. In the coming hours we can expect C-class flares and also isolated M-class flares. The halo CME was reported this morning first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 01:25 UT. The CME had the angular width of about 280 degrees and plane of the sky velocity of 500 km/s (as reported by the CACTUS software). Presently available EUV observations show no clear on disc signatures of this CME suggesting that its source region is probably at the back side of the Sun, as seen from Earth. This CME will therefore not arrive to Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold, we expect them to remain on these levels in the coming hours. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level and we expect it will stay so in the coming 24 hours.

The solar wind speed is presently about 470 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 7 nT. The arrival of the CME (first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 01:48 UT on June 13) and associated shock wave can be expected at Earth later today. The solar wind originating from the equatorial positive polarity coronal hole is expected at Earth on June 15. The geomagnetic conditions are presently quiet to unsettled. The arrival of the CME and the fast solar wind is expected to induce the disturbed geomagnetic conditions (active to storm conditions are possible).

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 131, за даними 21 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Jun 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	110
Сонячний потік 10 см	132
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	019
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	017
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	103 - За даними 30 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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