Перегляд архіву понеділок, 27 червня 2022

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jun 27 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
27 Jun 2022	098	021
28 Jun 2022	100	012
29 Jun 2022	098	008

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at very low levels. Active region NOAA 3038 (beta) is now rotating behind the northwest limb. NOAA AR 3040 (beta) is currently crossing the central meridian, but has remained magnetically simple and inactive. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain at very levels with small chances for isolated C-class flaring.

The partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in LASCO C2 data around 03:24 UTC on June 26th with an average plane of sky velocity of around 680 km/s is now attributed to an on disc filament eruption in the south-west quadrant. Based on the filament location and the direction of the CME, the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss the Earth with a minor chance for a weak glancing blow arrival on June 29th. No other Earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain above the 1000 pfu threshold for long period of time over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to increase to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the influence of the high speed stream (HSS), which was reported yesterday. The solar wind velocity has decreased from over 700 km/s to about 500 km/s at present. The interplanetary magnetic field also decreased from 9.7 nT to 6 nT at present. The Bz component was weak and mostly positive. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours under the influence of the HSS.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were unsettled to active. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours as the Earth remains under the influence of the high speed stream.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 057, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 26 Jun 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	034
AK Wingst	027
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	029
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	034 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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