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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jun 30 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
30 Jun 2022	092	008
01 Jul 2022	094	006
02 Jul 2022	094	005

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours has reached low levels with a single C-class flare. A C1.4-class flare with peak time 23:13 UTC on June 29th was produced by a new region rotating from behind the north-east limb. There are now four numbered sunspot regions on the visible disc and one unnumbered bipolar region near S12E33. None of these regions has shown any significant flaring activity. NOAA 3040 (beta) has shrunk and currently has the same sunspot area as NOAA 3042 (beta). NOAA 3044 has decayed into alpha and NOAA 3043 has remained a simple magnetic type alpha. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at very low to low levels with more C-class flaring expected form the new region rotating from the north-east limb.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. The large on disc filament eruption from the northern part of the central meridian around 22 UTC on June 28th has no clear coronagraph signature and is estimated to have no clear impact on Earth. A partial halo CME was detected by LASCO/C2 coronagraph data around 03:24 UTC on June 30th with an average plane of sky velocity around 400 km/s. This event appears back-sided with no expected impact on Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were on their return towards background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed has gradually declined from about 490 km/s to 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximal value of 4.9 nT and a minimum Bz of -3 nT. The orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly in the negative sector (towards the Sun). There were no clear impacts from the expected glancing blow arrival of the June 26th CME. The solar wind parameters are expected to continue to decline towards slow solar wind conditions over the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with isolated unsettled periods.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 047, за даними 24 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 29 Jun 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	092
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	040 - За даними 32 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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