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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 08 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
08 Jul 2022	121	016
09 Jul 2022	130	008
10 Jul 2022	140	005

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours with two C1 flares detected. One of them was produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3053 (Catania Group 72) that has lost some of its magnetic complexity, but still has a strong potential for C-class and possibly M-class activity. The other one was emitted from the newly-numbered NOAA 3055 (Catania group 78) that is also expected to produce more C-class activity in the next 24 hours.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

During the last 24 hours, the Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by the arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) with a strong, negative Bz magnetic component. The SW speed is around 400 to 450 km/s for the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) peaked at 22 nT with the arrival of the CME but has since gradually dropped to almost 10 nT. Its Bz component dropped to -20 nT at the arrival of the disturbance and remained below -10 nT for 12 hours. Since then it fluctuates between 15 nT and -10 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle became negative (directed towards the Sun) when the CME arrived and remained so until Bz crossed to positive values. Since then it varied between positive and negative values. In the next 24 hours the SW conditions will remain affected by this disturbance, although the effects are expected to be milder.

Geomagnetic conditions reached globally minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5) for several hours (between 12:00-15:00 and 21:00-06:00 UT) and locally also minor storm levels (K Doubres 5) but for a shorter period (13:00-15:00 UT). Conditions are expected to become milder in the next 24 hours both globally and locally, with Kp reaching active conditions at most.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 093, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 07 Jul 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	134
Сонячний потік 10 см	121
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	018
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	019
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	098 - За даними 25 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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