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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 12 1239 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
12 Jul 2022	171	020
13 Jul 2022	180	014
14 Jul 2022	173	006

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. There are six numbered active regions on disk, of which NOAA Active Regions 3053, 3055, 3056 and 3057 are most active. NOAA AR 3056 produced a C7.6 flare peaking at 03:28. The flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels with C-class flares expected, M-class flares are probable and a slight chance for an X-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed increased from 300 to 470 km/s with a small shock detected at 16:20 UT. The total magnetic field ranged between 1 and 17 nT and had a minimum Bz of -14 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced due to a combination of the arrival of the solar wind associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on July 09, and a possible glancing blow from the CME observed on July 8.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and Local K-Dourbes 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be active over the next 24 hours with a chance of minor storm conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 116, за даними 20 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 11 Jul 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	179
Сонячний потік 10 см	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	018
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	015
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	129 - За даними 32 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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