Перегляд архіву четвер, 21 липня 2022

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 21 1245 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
21 Jul 2022	133	017
22 Jul 2022	128	023
23 Jul 2022	130	022

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare observed was an C5.6-class flare, peaking at 21 July 01:11 UT, originating from NOAA AR 3060. The regions present have been mainly stable over the past 24 hours. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, where C-class flares are expected and there is a chance of M-class flares.

A type II radio emission on 21 July 01:21UT could be associated with the C5.6-class flare from region NOAA AR 3060. Stereo A C2 appears to have a data gap from that period. Based on the radio emission alone an impact may be expected late 22-early 23, but this assessment is highly speculative.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at nominal levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux has been fluctuating about the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to do so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters indicate the evolution of the passage the ICME, whose shock was registered on 18 July 20:33 UT, with a disturbance registered early 21 July. Over the past 24 hours, the total magnetic field decreased to 6 nT, increasing back to 12 nT at the end of the period. The Bz component decreased from positive values of 9nT down to -8 nT . The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly on the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed has been stable to around 400 km/s. Over the next 24 hours, the values of the solar wind parameters are expected to be influenced by the high speed stream from the two negative polarity coronal holes to impact 21-22 July.

Quiet to unsettled conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours ( K Dourbes 3). Over next the 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, while active conditions are possible.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 123, за даними 12 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 20 Jul 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	193
Сонячний потік 10 см	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	143 - За даними 33 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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