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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 26 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
26 Jul 2022	100	011
27 Jul 2022	098	007
28 Jul 2022	098	007

Бюлетень

X-ray flux remained below C level throughout the period. The older regions were mostly stable or in decay. The region that emerged yesterday in the south east (Catania group 96, NOAA active region 3066) consolidated and showed spreading of its magnetic footpoints. Those that emerged in the north (Catania groups 97 and 98) seem to be shortlived. The region that has just rotated over the east limb is awaiting further analysis as it rotates into view. Flaring at C level can be expected over the next days.

No Earth directed CME's have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux just briefly reached above the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels but should start to see a slow decline.

A small coronal hole of positive polarity located just to the north of the equator is about to rotate across the central meridian. It may influence Solar wind from July 29 onwards.

Slow Solar wind conditions are recorded. Solar wind is believed to be below 450km/s as measured by ACE (despite the higher values indicated by DSCOVR which are believed to be erroneous). The interplanetary magnetic field increased slightly to a magnitude of 7nT with a period of sustained southward orientation (Bz=-5nT) around midnight. The interplanetary magnetic field is connected to a negative sector (field towards the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next days. Any possible perturbations related to the coronal hole (currently about to cross the central meridian) is not expected before July 29.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2 and local K Dourbes 1-3). Though both indices did indicate active conditions (K=4) after midnight, following the period of sustained southward orientation of the interplanetary field. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected in the following days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 093, за даними 16 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 25 Jul 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	103
Сонячний потік 10 см	102
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	008
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	086 - За даними 29 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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