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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Aug 29 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
29 Aug 2022	125	017
30 Aug 2022	123	021
31 Aug 2022	121	011

Бюлетень

There were four M-class flares in the past 24 hours, from NOAA AR 3088 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) which is rotating out of view over the west limb. The strongest was an M8.6 flare, peaking at 11:07 UT. This region, and NOAA AR 3089 (beta-delta magnetic field configuration), can produce more M-class (and even X-class) flares in the next 24 hours.

A CME was seen erupting from NOAA AR 3088 (related to an M6.7 flare), on 28 August at 16:12 UT (as first seen by LASCO/C2). Since the AR was already at the limb, the ICME is not expected to arrive to the Earth but a shock might, on 31 August.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is below the 10 pfu mark. Depending on the activity on NOAA AR 3088, the protons may increase in the coming 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

A weak shock was seen in the solar wind at 02:56 UT, the magnetic field intensity jumped from 5 to 10 nT and the solar wind speed from 440 to 480 km/s. This shock is most likely driven by an ICME, producing only a glancing blow at the Earth. The CME from 27 August was expected to produce a glancing blow today, but the speed in situ is more indicative of an earlier candidate. The event is still ongoing, more information will be given later. The high speed solar wind coming from the low latitudinal extension of the southern polar coronal hole may arrive to the Earth in 24 hours, although it may pass south of the Earth.

Active conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours by NOAA Kp (up to 4) and unsettled locally (K Dourbes up to 3). Over the next 24 hours, active conditions can be expected, with minor storm levels possible.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 075, за даними 21 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 28 Aug 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	252
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	008
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	090 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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