Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 14 жовтня 2022

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Oct 14 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Oct 2022	130	026
15 Oct 2022	128	014
16 Oct 2022	126	007

Бюлетень

There are four active regions on the visible disc. One M-class flare was detected from NOAA AR 3112 as it rotates over the western limb, it was an M1.3 flare peaking at 09:44 UT. More M-class flares can be expected for the next 24 hours.

A wide (angular width around 100 degrees), slow and faint CME was seen by LASCO-C2 first at 07:48 UT on 13 October. This CME originated in a filament eruption in the southern hemisphere (about 30 degrees south of the equator), with the bulk of the material towards the south. Since the source region is close to the central meridian, an Earth arrival is possible on 17 October.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to decrease to normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions at the Earth have been dominated in recent hours by the expected arrival of the CME from 10 October. The magnetic field intensity have reached 16 nT with Bz down to -13 nT. The solar wind speed is about 370 km/s. The Earth will continue to see the effects of this ICME for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels due to the ICME (Kp up to 4 and K_Dourbes up to 3). Active to minor storm conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 081, за даними 12 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Oct 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	005
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	078 - За даними 18 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

Весь час у UTC

<< На сторінку денного огляду