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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Oct 17 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
17 Oct 2022	119	010
18 Oct 2022	139	009
19 Oct 2022	142	008

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours, with flare of largest X-ray output being the C1.9-class flare from NOAA AR 3123. NOAA AR 3119 is about to rotate off-disk. NOAA ARs 3122 and 3124 showed a relative development. Two regions are about to rotate on the SE quadrant of the disk. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are expected while M-class flares are possible.

A filament eruption can be seen on the SW quadrant at 15 Oct 15:38 UTC. This could be associated with a narrow, faint Coronal Mass Ejection can be seen on Stereo C2 16 Oct 03:53 UTC and Lasco C2 about 16 Oct 04:00 UTC. The probability of being seen in the solar wind parameters is currently believed to be of very low probability. Similarly, activity was also observed in the southern hemisphere, but any possible impact to be expected on the solar wind parameters is unclear.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at nominal levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about threshold over the next 24 hours, depending on possible ICME arrivals. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected persistent High Speed Stream (HSS) influences over the past 24 hours. The solar wind magnetic field values decreased further to 4 nT, while Bz had values between -6 and 6 nT. The solar wind speed was fairly stable at about 550 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly on the negative sector (towards the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, there is a small chance of glancing blow from the CME of 13 October 07:48 UTC.

Active conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours (K NOAA and K Dourbes 4). Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled, with a small chance of active conditions can be expected.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 071, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 16 Oct 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	016
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	015
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	062 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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