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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Nov 01 1237 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
01 Nov 2022	126	007
02 Nov 2022	128	007
03 Nov 2022	128	010

Бюлетень

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with isolated low C-class flaring. Two isolated C-class flares was produced by NOAA AR 3135 (beta-gamma), which has increased in complexity and remains the largest active region on the visible disk. The remaining flaring activity was produced from behind the east and west limbs. NOAA 3133 (alpha) has significantly decayed, while NOAA 3131 has remained mostly stable. A new rather small and simple active region has emerged in the south-east quadrant and is now numbered as NOAA 3136. A returning active region is expected to rotate onto the east limb within the next day and might contribute to the observed C-class flaring. The solar flaring activity is expected to continue at very low to low levels over the next 24 hours with isolated C-class flares.

An asymmetric partial halo coronal mass ejections (CME) was first detected by LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery around 13:48 UTC on Oct 31st. In the absence of on-disk signatures the CME is determined to be back-sided and no impacts at Earth are expected. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has oscillated around the1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to cross the 1000 pfu threhold again over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence has been at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the continuous influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity has varied between 422 to 512 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained weak with a maximum value of 6.5 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.1 nT. The magnetic field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours under the continuous influence of the HSS.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled with a single isolated active period as registered globally by the NOAA Kp index between 06 and 09 UTC this morning. Predominantly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours in response to the continuous influence of the HSS. Isolated active periods remain possible. A small chance for isolated intervals with minor storms on Nov 4th is given due to the expected arrival of another HSS.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 078, за даними 11 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 31 Oct 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	014
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	063 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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