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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Nov 12 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
12 Nov 2022	136	009
13 Nov 2022	136	010
14 Nov 2022	136	007

Бюлетень

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with several C-class flares and one M1.1-class flare produced by the complex bipolar sunspot region Catania Sunspot group 89 (NOAA AR 3141) currently on the solar surface visible from Earth. The M1.1-class flare peaked at 00:18 UTC on Nov 12. The other sunspot groups on the solar surface visible from Earth didn’t show any significant flaring activity. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain moderate levels with a probability of M-class flare and possible one isolated X-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached for a very short period the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was mostly at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed parameter (ACE and DSCOVR) became enhanced reflecting the slow arrival of the expected high-speed streams from a small and narrow equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind speed increased from 318 km/s to 500 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field remained enhanced and reached values up to 14 nT; and the southward interplanetary magnetic, Bz component ranged between -10.4 nT and 11.6 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain high for the next days.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettle (K-Belgium, Kp-NOAA ranged between 1 and 3) due to the long period of negative values from the southward interplanetary magnetic field, Bz component. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions with possible short periods of active geomagnetic conditions are possible due to the arrival of the high- speed streams from a small and narrow equatorial coronal hole.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 077, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 11 Nov 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	009
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	067 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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