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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Nov 18 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
18 Nov 2022	120	013
19 Nov 2022	120	029
20 Nov 2022	120	034

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity has been low, with several C flares being recorded in the past 24 hours. The strongest ones originated from NOAA active region 3145, with the strongest peaking at C5.5 level at 9:14UTC. The most active region, NOAA active region 3245, is now at the West solar limb, but there is still a possibility for it to produce observable flares. NOAA active region 3148 has evolved into a unipolar region. NOAA active region 3146 has decayed while some new spot formation is observed to the South-West of it. NOAA active regions 3147 and 3149 both remained quiet. Flaring at C level is expected.

No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is transiting the central meridian and is expected to influence solar wind conditions from November 19 onwards.

Slow Solar wind conditions were recorded, with solar wind speed around 320 km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field around 6nT. The orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field showed mostly connection with a negative sector (field towards the Sun). The north-south component of the magnetic field has tended to be negative this morning. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue up to tomorrow with then the expected onset of a high speed stream from the large negative polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere.

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp between 0-1+ and local K Dourbes 0-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next 24 hours then followed by increased geomagnetic activity possibly reaching minor storm levels under influence of the expected high speed stream conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 045, за даними 12 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 17 Nov 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	086
Сонячний потік 10 см	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	001
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	001
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	053 - За даними 15 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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