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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Dec 03 1235 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
03 Dec 2022	128	016
04 Dec 2022	131	012
05 Dec 2022	133	007

Бюлетень

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.1 flare recorded at the northeast limb, associated with a new region (N16E85). Catania sunspot group 8 (NOAA AR 3153) is the largest region on disk but produced only low-level C-class flares in the last day. Catania sunspot group 11 (NOAA AR 3156) has now rotated onto disk and continues to produce C-class flares. Catania sunspot groups 7 and 9 (NOAA ARs 3154 and 3155) were inactive. Catania sunspot group 6 (NOAA AR 3152) decayed into a plage region. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

No Earth directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the minor-storm warning threshold and is expected to remain so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold during the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to continue to exceed this threshold over the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at moderate to high levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed showed a gradually decreasing trend, decreasing from 740 km/s to values around 570 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 2 and 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours, as the influence of the high-speed stream wanes.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels (NOAA KP 2-3 and Local K Dourbes 2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels over the next day, with isolated active periods possible particularly on Dec 03.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 088, за даними 05 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 02 Dec 2022

Число Вольфа, Катанія	085
Сонячний потік 10 см	124
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	016
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	017
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	078 - За даними 11 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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