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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jan 20 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
20 Jan 2023	230	012
21 Jan 2023	228	010
22 Jan 2023	226	008

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with several C-class flares being detected. The X-ray flux background remained at the C level. The largest flare was a C6.7 flare, peaking at 01:52 UTC on Jan 20, associated with active region NOAA 3190 (beta-gamma class). NOAA 3197 (beta class) and NOAA 3198 (beta class), that have recently rotated from behind the south-east limb, were inactive. NOAA AR 3184 (beta class), that was inactive, will rotate over the west solar limb in the next hours. NOAA ARs 3190 and 3192 remained the most complex (beta-gamma class) regions and produced several C-class flares in the last 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and a chance for X-class flares.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The solar wind data from ACE and DSCOVR were not reliable in the last days, it included many gaps and errors. According to SOHO, the solar wind speed was close to 350 km/s until 00:30 UTC Jan 20, than it increased to values close to 500 km/s. The solar wind parameters are expected to be elevated in the next days, with the possible further enhancement due to HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole on Jan 20.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active in the next days, with possible isolated minor storm periods during next hours due to arrival of the HSS on Jan 20.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 207, за даними 07 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 19 Jan 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	219
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	209 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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