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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Feb 07 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
07 Feb 2023	164	016
08 Feb 2023	165	013
09 Feb 2023	164	005

Бюлетень

The solar flaring activity has increased significantly over the past 24 hours. The source of the flaring activity is mainly NOAA AR 3213, which is presently at the center of the solar disc and became more magnetically complex (currently having beta-gamma configuration). Other sunspot groups on the visible side of the solar disk still have an alpha or beta photospheric magnetic field configuration. A total of 22 C-class flares have been detected. The strongest flare was a GOES C3.6-class flare originating from NOAA AR 3213, which peaked at 06:07UT today. We expect solar flaring activity to stay at similar levels, with C-class flares expected and a small possibility of M-class flares.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. With the arrival of the high speed stream associated with the negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, the solar wind speed has increased significantly over the past 24 hours, reaching values of about 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength was about 8-9 nT. We expect the solar wind speed and magnetic field to stay enhanced as long as Earth resides in the high speed stream.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were unsettled (K-Bel=2-4 NOAA-Kp=2-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days, with possible isolated active periods due to influence of the high speed stream.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 122, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 06 Feb 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	016
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	018
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	119 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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