Перегляд архіву четвер, 23 лютого 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Feb 23 1249 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
23 Feb 2023	153	016
24 Feb 2023	154	028
25 Feb 2023	155	021

Бюлетень

Moderate Solar flaring activity was recorded. Catania group 94 (NOAA active region 3234) produced several M flares of which the strongest an M2.6 peaking at 13:50UTC. Catania group 94 (NOAA active region 3234) showed further development with emergence of opposite polarity flux in the trailing area. M flaring from this region is likely with also a potential for an X class flare. Catania group 89 (NOAA active region 3229) simplified, particularly in its intermediate area and is now a simple bipolar region with beta type configuration of its photospheric field. dissipation of the trailing spots was observed in Catania group 89 (NOAA active region 3229). Catania group 96 has emerged as a new bipolar group near N19E17. Flaring at M level is expected with a chance for X-class flaring.

No Earth directed CMEs have been identified in coronagraph images.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remains so. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A (negative polarity) extension of the southern polar coronal hole has transited the central meridian in previous days and may influence solar wind conditions at Earth from tomorrow.

High speed solar wind conditions have set in somewhat unexpectedly. Solar wind speed increased to around 550km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field increased to over 10nT but is back around 7nT currently. The orientation of the magnetic field continued to indicate connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun). The north-south orientation of the magnetic field was variable. Solar wind conditions are expected to decline but later to be followed with a switch into a negative sector and a renewed increase in solar wind speed associated to the high speed stream form the extension of the southern polar coronal hole.

Geomagnetic conditions remained unsettled locally (local K Belgium 1-3) but the NOAA Kp index did reach to 5- this morning associated to the high speed stream solar wind conditions. Unsettled to active conditions are expected over the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 095, за даними 06 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 22 Feb 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	127
Сонячний потік 10 см	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	010
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	011
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	108 - За даними 11 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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