Перегляд архіву середа, 1 березня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Mar 01 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
01 Mar 2023	161	008
02 Mar 2023	161	007
03 Mar 2023	161	007

Бюлетень

The solar flaring activity was at low levels of the past 24 hours most of the time, except for a M8.6-class flare occurring on February 28 at 17:50 UTC in the most complex region on disc, NOAA active region 3234 (with a magnetic complexity of beta-gamma-delta). It was then followed by a small flare (M1.0-class) from the same region on March 03 at 01:07 UTC. The other region on the disc did not show any significant flaring. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain mostly at low levels with C-class flares with some possibility of M-class flare.

Several coronal mass ejections and flows were observed in the currently available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV protons flux has now returned at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to be at the background levels over the next day before. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain elevated over the next days due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to increase to moderated levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind environment near Earth was enhanced with speed fluctuating between 600 km/s and 700 km/s due to the combination of the fast wind from the equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that transited the central meridian and the arrival of the coronal mass ejection. The total interplanetary magnetic show some decline from 10 nT in the beginning of the 24-hour period up to know between 5 nT and 6 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between -5 nT and 7 nT. The solar wind condition is expected to continue its decrease over the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with few periods of active condition due to the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, being negative for a prolonged period. Currently the geomagnetic conditions show quiet condition, future isolated episodes of unsettled or active condition cannot be excluded due to the wind speed reminding elevated.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 094, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 28 Feb 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	027
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	025
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	092 - За даними 34 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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