Перегляд архіву середа, 29 березня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Mar 29 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
29 Mar 2023	155	004
30 Mar 2023	155	017
31 Mar 2023	154	035

Бюлетень

The solar flaring activity increased in the past 24 hours with ten active regions on the visible solar disk. A total of 16 flares have been reported, with one low level X-class flare and 15 C-class flares. An X1.1-class flare with peak time 12:33 UT on March 29 was produced by NOAA AR 3256 (beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field). This region was also source of the majority of the other C-class flares. This region is currently located near the South-West solar limb. Closely before the recorded flare peak time, starting at 02:12 UTC on March 29, an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2. Based on the width of the observed CME and the location of the source region, we do not expect the CME to reach Earth. In the next 24 hours, we expect solar flaring activity to decrease with C-class flares expected and with a possible isolated M-class flare or even X-class flare.

During the last 24 hours there were no potentially Earth-directed coronal mass ejections detected in the available coronagraph observations.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has stayed around the 1000 pfu threshold for the past 24 hours where it started an incline around 02:45UT. We expect it to stay at similar levels over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed was rather stable over the last 24 hours with values of about 380 km/s as we returned to slow solar wind conditions. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was about 5 nT during the last 24 hours. From March 30 onwards, we are expecting the arrival of another high speed stream, associated with the negative polarity, equatorial coronal hole that has now almost fully crossed the central meridian. Due to the coronal hole location at the disk centre, we can expect strong impact of the associated fast solar wind.

During the last 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet with the K and Kp values between 1-2 as reported by the local station at Dourbes and NOAA, respectively. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet in the coming hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 170, за даними 10 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 28 Mar 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	004
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	143 - За даними 19 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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