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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 May 14 1241 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
14 May 2023	140	009
15 May 2023	136	008
16 May 2023	133	007

Бюлетень

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a C7 flare, peaking at 09:17 UTC May 14, associated with NOAA AR 3296 which is now beyond the west limb. This region also produced multiple lower level C-class flares, as did NOAA AR 3300, 3305, 3293 and 3297. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold. It is expected that the proton flux will be below this threshold for the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next day. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected a transient feature passing in the magnetic field, beginning around 17:00 UTC on May 13. The magnetic field increased to 15nT with a minimum Bz of -14 nT. The magnetic field then decreased and from 22:00 UTC stabilised around 6 nT with a predominantly positive Bz. The solar wind speed remained fairly constant throughout the period, with values between 400 and 490 km/s throughout the day. The solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to continue to gradually decrease, with a low probability for further minor enhancements from late on May 14, due to the CME associated with the M2.1 flare observed on May 11, which may have a glancing blow at Earth.

The geomagnetic conditions reached active conditions globally (NOAA KP = 4) and minor storm conditions locally (K Bel =5). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, active to minor storm conditions may be possible from early on May 15 associated to a low probability CME arrival.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 133, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 May 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	015
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	132 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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