Перегляд архіву пʼятниця, 19 травня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 May 19 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
19 May 2023	161	008
20 May 2023	159	018
21 May 2023	159	018

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with seven M-class flares and several C-class flares being detected. There are nine active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3311 (beta class) produced the most the flaring activity, with the brightest being a M5.4 flare, peaking at 00:48 UTC on May 19. NOAA AR 3305 (beta-gamma class) remains the most complex active region, but was inactive. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A small filament eruption occurred in the southwestern quadrant from around 04:51 UTC on May 19. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 07:12 UTC onwards. The CME is directed to the south-west, appears narrow and slow and is unlikely to arrive to Earth. Another filament eruption occured near the center of the solar disk on May 19 from around 07:48UTC. We are awaiting corresponding coronagraph data for further analysis. A glancing blow from the CMEs associated with a C4.3 flare (peaking at 15:30 UTC on May 17) from NOAA AR 3309 and a filament eruption around 16:00 UTC on May 17 might arrive to Earth on May 21. No other Earth- directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed remained in the slow solar wind regime with values between 320 km/s and 350km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength was about 4-6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail until May 20. On May 20 and May 21, solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly elevated due to the anticipated arrival of a mild high-speed stream and a low possibility of glancing blow arrival associated with a filament eruption in the southwest sector on May 17th.

Геомагнетизм

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels. Quiet conditions are expected for the rest of May 19, active conditions may be possible on May 20 associated to HSS arrival and on May 21 due to low possibility of ICME arrival.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton has returned to near the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day, with a very small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 132, за даними 18 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 18 May 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	003
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	117 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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