Перегляд архіву понеділок, 12 червня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jun 12 1237 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
12 Jun 2023	147	006
13 Jun 2023	145	010
14 Jun 2023	148	017

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C5.2 flare, peaking at 06:58 UTC on June 12, associated with NOAA AR 3330 and also associated with Type II radio emission. NOAA AR 3327 decayed slightly, while NOAA AR 3231 became more complex. The other regions on the disk are magnetically simple and produced only low-level C-class flares. A new sunspot group began to emerge in the southeastern quadrant, but this is small and as yet unnumbered. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

In the last 24 hours there were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Корональні діри

A small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole began to transit the central meridian on June 12.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions continued to reflect the ongoing influence of a weak high-speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed increased from 400 to 480 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 12 to 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated for the next days with the ongoing HSS influence and a there is a low probability for further minor enhancements from late on June 13, due to the possible arrival of the CME from June 09, which was predicted to have a glancing blow at Earth.

Геомагнетизм

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3 and K-Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on June 12, increasing to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods from late on June 13, due to the combination of the current high-speed stream influence and a possible glancing blow of the ICME.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 118, за даними 22 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 11 Jun 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	012
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	145 - За даними 25 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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