Перегляд архіву вівторок, 27 червня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jun 27 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
27 Jun 2023	157	007
28 Jun 2023	157	013
29 Jun 2023	157	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was mostly at low levels over the last 24 hours with one isolated M-class flare. The M1.6-class flare was produced by the currently most complex region on the disc, NOAA Active Region AR-3340 (Beta-gamma). The other active regions were also active producing several C-class flares. We expect the activity remaining mostly at low levels with several C-class flares, and possible isolated M-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

No clear Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the SOHO/LASCO coronograph images over the past 24 hours. However, a solar coronal dimming was observed today starting at around 01:00 UTC and ending around 01:45 UTC. This coronal dimming was located on the disc centre close to the Sunspot region NOAA AR 3349. This type of coronal events are usually associated with the initiation of a coronal mass ejection. Analysis is ongoing to estimate the potential impact of this or this coronal mass ejection heading toward Earth, and its arrival time.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions were affected by the passage of the coronal mass ejection glancing blow (associated to the X-class flare on Jun 24). The wind speed was between 475 km/s to 550 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has now decreased to values around 6 nT. The southward component (Bz) was fluctuating between -6.9 nT and 3.9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately negative, directed toward the Sun during the past 24 hours. The solar wind condition is expected to remain mostly close to nominal values in the next hours. Then mild enhancement is expected due to the arrival of the high-speed streams from the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some period of unsettled periods (NOAA Kp<4). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 24 hours, then possible unsettled to active condition may be expected with the solar wind enhancement due to the arrival of the high-speed streams associated with the coronal hole (negative polarity) that crossed the solar meridian on Jun 24.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels for the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at these levels for the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 158, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 26 Jun 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	133
Сонячний потік 10 см	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	017
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	016
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	164 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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