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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Aug 27 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
27 Aug 2023	140	007
28 Aug 2023	142	007
29 Aug 2023	144	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

There are six active regions visible on the disk. NOAA AR 3415 has beta-delta magnetic field configuration, it is capable of producing M-class flares. The rest of the active regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. An M1.1 flare was observed peaking at 22:50 UTC on 26 August, from a region slightly behind the east limb. More M-class flares can be expected as this active region turns into view.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo CME, with angular width around 150 degrees erupted towards the east at 22:36 UTC on 26 August (as seen by LASCO-C2). It was related to the M1.1 flare above the east limb. The source region of the CME is slightly behind the east limb. Therefore it is not expected to affect the Earth. A wide CME (angular width around 90 degrees) erupted towards the west, first seen by LASCO-C2 at 13:25 UTC on 26 August. The source region of this CME, NOAA AR 3415, is located close to the west limb, only a shock at most could arrive to the Earth. Simultaneously, a faint CME can be observed erupting towards the south from NOAA AR 3413 (dimmings observed there). This CME has a possible Earth directed component, although it is faint, so if it arrives only a mild impact is expected. A possible arrival (although not very likely) of these two transients can be expected on August 29-30.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind arriving to the Earth is slow, with speeds around 400 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nt. Over the last 24 hours, we observed a period of several hours with interplanetary magnetic field up to 8 nT, and Bz reaching - 7 nT. This could be related to the arrival of the CME from 22 August, expected yesterday, although the signatures are too weak to confirm this. Slow wind conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active globally (NOAA KP 2-4) and unsettled locally (K Bel 2-3). The active period may be a consequence of the arrival of the CME from 22 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 083, за даними 15 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 26 Aug 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	088 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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