Перегляд архіву середа, 30 серпня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Aug 30 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
30 Aug 2023	143	006
31 Aug 2023	143	007
01 Sep 2023	143	014

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with few C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an C4.0 flare, peaking at 23:27 on Aug 29, associated with the NOAA AR 3417 (beta class). NOAA AR 3415 (beta-gamma class) is currently the most complex region on the disk but produced only B-class flare. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3413 (beta class) and by AR, that has recently rotated onto the visible side of the solar disk (N21E81). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:48 UTC on Aug 29. The CME is believed to originate from a region of coronal dimming located near N05W35. The CME is directed to the north-west and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow at Earth may be possible. Full analysis is ongoing and more details will be provided later. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 300 - 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days, with a small chance of a weak enhancement on Aug 30 due to a possible arrival of the CME from Aug 26. On Sept 01 solar wind parameters might be slightly elevated due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that transited the central meridian on Aug 29.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at mostly quiet levels, with a small chance of increasing to unsettled and active conditions on Aug 30, due to a possible arrival of the CME from Aug 26. On Sept 01 unsettled to active condition may be possible in response to the expected high-speed stream arrival associated with the coronal hole (positive polarity) that transited the central meridian on Aug 29.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 106, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 29 Aug 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	081
Сонячний потік 10 см	142
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	005
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	005
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	089 - За даними 20 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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