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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Sep 01 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
01 Sep 2023	140	014
02 Sep 2023	142	026
03 Sep 2023	142	026

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity increased to moderate levels in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long duration M1.2 flare, peaking at 03:51 on Sept 01. The flare was also associated with a Type II and Type IV radio burst and originated from NOAA AR 3413 (beta class), which was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Isolated B-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3415 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:48 UTC on Aug 29, directed towards the northwest. The CME is believed to have originated from a region of coronal dimming located near N05W35. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 22:12 UTC on Aug 30, directed towards the southeast. The CME is associated to a filament eruption near the disk centre and a GOES C1.4 flare, peaking at 21:26 UTC on Aug 30. The CME shows an Earth directed component and is likely to arrive late on Sept 02 – early on Sept 03. If so, it is expected to merge with the earlier CME mentioned above. A fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 04:17 UTC on Sept 01, directed to north-west. The CME was driven by a long-duration M1.2 flare from NOAA AR 3413 (beta), peak time - 03:51 UTC. The CME has a possible Earth directed component; further analysis is ongoing to better determine the expected impacts. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been slightly elevated. The solar wind speed values ranged between 320 km/s and 460 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic had a peak value 13 nT at around 17:00 UTC on Aug 31. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7 nT and 8 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated in the next days due to HSS arrival associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, with a further enhancement possible on Sept 02 – Sept 03 due to the predicted arrival of CMEs.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp: 1 to 3 and K-BEL: 1 to 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels in response to the expected high-speed stream arrival with the possibility of isolated minor or moderate storm periods on Sept 02 -Sept 03 due to predicted CMEs arrivals.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10 pfu threshold on Sept 01 at 04:30 UTC and reached a maximum value of 290 at 05:50 UTC. This proton event is associated with the M1.2 flare and the halo CME. The proton flux is expected to remain above the threshold over the next hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 088, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 31 Aug 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	073
Сонячний потік 10 см	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	090 - За даними 37 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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