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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Sep 03 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
03 Sep 2023	130	029
04 Sep 2023	128	016
05 Sep 2023	128	018

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and two M-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The two largest flares of the period were an M6.0 flare, peaking at 08:36 UTC on Sept 03 and a long duration M1.1 flare, peaking at 00:23 on Sept 03, associated with NOAA AR 3413. NOAA AR 3413, which has now rotated behind the west limb, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

In the past 24 hours, several coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. In particular, two CMEs, directed towards north-west were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at approximately 05:24 UTC and 09:12 on Sept 3rd, are likely related to the C5.9 and M6.0 flares from NOAA AR 3413. These CMEs are not expected to be Earth directed given the source location, however, further analysis is ongoing, and more details will be provided later. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly elevated. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 4 nT and 10 nT. The solar wind speed values decreased from 570 km/s to the values around 470 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -8 nT and 5 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated for the next days due to the ongoing HSS and likely CME influence, with a further enhancement possible on Sept 05 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly unsettled to minor storm level (NOAA-Kp=3-5, K-Bel=3-5) with a single moderate storm period registered globally (NOAA-Kp=6-) during the interval 00:00 -03:00 UTC on Sept 3rd. Predominantly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a chance for isolated minor or moderate storm periods.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton has returned to near the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 098, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 02 Sep 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	046
AK Wingst	033
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	036
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	089 - За даними 25 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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