Перегляд архіву четвер, 14 вересня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Sep 14 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Sep 2023	140	007
15 Sep 2023	140	013
16 Sep 2023	140	013

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long duration M1.4 flare, occuring at 06:40 on Sept 14 near N20W40. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3423 (beta class) and NOAA AR 3429 (beta-gamma class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A filament eruption occurred in the northwestern quadrant of the Sun from around 06:26 UTC on September 14th, associated to M1.4 flare. Further coronagraph data is awaited to judge any possible Earth-directed ejecta. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been slightly elevated with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching values up to 11 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -7 nT and 9 nT. The solar wind speed followed an increasing trend, rising from 360 km/s to 500 km/s. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to be elevated in the next days due to the high speed stream influence, with a further enhancement possible on Sept 14 – Sept 15 due to the predicted arrival of CME from Sept 11.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a single active period registered globally (NOAA-Kp=4) during the interval 00-03 UTC on Sept 14. Locally only quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=1-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Unsettled to active condition may be possible during the next 24 hours in response to the expected high-speed stream arrival and possible CME arrival.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expecte to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 144, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Sep 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	137
Сонячний потік 10 см	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	020
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	021
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	141 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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