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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Oct 06 1237 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
06 Oct 2023	157	010
07 Oct 2023	157	011
08 Oct 2023	157	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was quiet with only one small C-class flares beside the number of bipolar regions on the solar disc visible from Earth. There are currently 10 numbered active regions with alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The most complex regions are NOAA AR 3451 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3452 (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is likely to be at quiet levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, and a low chance for isolated M-class flares and X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed on the West limb at 20:00 UTC on October 05 in the SOHO/LASCO images. The analysis indicated that the source of the CME was on the far side of the Sun. Therefore no impact on the solar wind condition near Earth is expected. No other Earth-directed CME have been detected in the last 24 hours in the available SOHO/LASCO images.

Сонячний вітер

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind conditions near Earth were enhanced due to the arrival of solar wind streams associated to 2 small positive polarity coronal holes that crossed the central meridian on October 01 and 02. The total interplanetary magnetic field was ranging between 5.0 nT and 8.8 nT. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic showed mainly negative values with a minimum value of -6.9 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 410 km/s and 497 km/s. The solar wind is expected to remain slightly enhanced before returning to nominal conditions.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were unsettled (K Bel 3, Kp-NOAA 3) due to the enhanced solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels over the last 24 hours. It is expected to mostly remain at background level, however possible rise of the proton flux cannot be fully excluded due to the current number of complex regions on the disc.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected remains below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 154, за даними 17 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 05 Oct 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	187
Сонячний потік 10 см	156
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	019
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	020
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	169 - За даними 22 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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