Перегляд архіву вівторок, 31 жовтня 2023

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Oct 31 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
31 Oct 2023	137	012
01 Nov 2023	140	004
02 Nov 2023	140	004

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was at low levels in the past 24 hours with isolated C-class flaring. The strongest activity was an impulsive C5.7 flare, peak time at 00:23 UTC on Oct 31st, produced by NOAA AR 3473 (beta-gamma), which has exhibited some growth and increased its magnetic complexity. Multiple low C-class flares were produced by NOAA AR 3474 (beta-gamma), which underwent significant growth. NOAA AR 3475 has decayed into plage and NOAA AR 3472 (beta) has remained silent. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming days with likely C-class flares and low chances for isolated M-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the diminishing influence of a high speed stream arrival. The solar wind velocity reached a maximum of 587 km/s and has decreased to below 500 km/s at the time of writing. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 5.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to decrease towards background slow solar wind conditions.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to unsettled with NOAA Kp ranging between 2- and 3+. Several active periods were registered over Belgium with local K index reaching 4 between 11 UTC and 14 UTC On Oct 30th. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with remaining chances for isolated active periods and mostly quiet conditions are expected thereafter as the solar wind conditions return to nominal slow solar wind regime.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to oscillate around and above this threshold in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and ease up to nominal levels after.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 090, за даними 06 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 30 Oct 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	107
Сонячний потік 10 см	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	014
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	014
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	075 - За даними 21 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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