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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Dec 05 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
05 Dec 2023	138	017
06 Dec 2023	138	017
07 Dec 2023	138	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity wasb moderated over past 24 hours with one M-class flare and several C-class flares. The M-class flare was observed at the East limb from a new bipolar region (currently located at 18 degree latitude North and 75 degree longitude East). This new region was the most active and also produced several C-class flares. The regions NOAA 3500, 3508, 3511 continue to produce C-class flares. The currently most complex region, NOAA 3500, with a beta- gamma magnetic class, showed some declining phase. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours with some chances of M-class flare from the new region on the East limb.

Корональні викиди маси

A large coronal dimming was observed the central meridian near 18 degree latitude South. No associated coronal mass ejection had been observed in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images yet, however, due to its location it may have an Earth directed components and may impact the solar wind environment near Earth in a couple of days. More information will come as data becomes available. No other Earth directed coronal mass ejection was identified in the currently available SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images.

Корональні діри

The large equatorial coronal hole (negative polarity) is currently on the geoeffective location of the Sun (on the West side near longitudes 40-50 degrees).

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by the High-Speed Stream (HSS) from the large equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on Saturday 2 of December. The SW speed ranged between 500 km/s and 600 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) reached up to 15 nT then decreased to values around 5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 9 nT as a result of the HSS arrival. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was negative (directed towards the Sun) during the past 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain strongly affected by the said HSS during the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. We expect mainly unsettled condition in the next 24 hours in response to the ongoing fast solar wind conditions, possibly with short periods of active conditions.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and it is expected to remain mostly below 1000 pfu during the next 24 hours, however, due to the ongoing fast solar wind condition we expect the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to show some increases. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours with also some increases due to the ongoing solar wind conditions.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 139, за даними 03 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 04 Dec 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	137
Сонячний потік 10 см	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	009
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	008
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	115 - За даними 11 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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