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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Dec 20 1244 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
20 Dec 2023	181	015
21 Dec 2023	182	010
22 Dec 2023	183	015

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at low levels with several C-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest reported flare was GOES C8.3 flare, which peaked at 08:54 UT on Dec 20, from NOAA AR 3521. During the flare, the source region (AR 3521) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian and a high-speed stream from this coronal hole may arrive to Earth from December 22.

Сонячний вітер

Earth continues to be under the influence of the fast solar wind. The solar wind speed decreased from 665 km/s to 475 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 1 nT to 8 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4), due to the continued impact of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17. The geomagnetic condition is expected to be quiet to active conditions probably in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 153, за даними 06 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 19 Dec 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	231
Сонячний потік 10 см	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	018
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	011
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	174 - За даними 14 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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