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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Dec 22 1259 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
22 Dec 2023	193	007
23 Dec 2023	193	013
24 Dec 2023	192	012

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M3.3 flare from NOAA AR 3519 which peaked at 00:04 UTC on Dec 22. There were several c-class flare from the same active region. During the flare, the source region (AR 3519) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

The newly arrived observations (feeling the SDO AIA datagap) show eruption of a large prominence situated close to the western solar limb. The associated CME, which was observed at 04:00 UTC on Dec 21, has an angular width of about 90 degree and it will not probably arrive to the Earth. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity coronal hole (CH), possibly connected to the southern polar CH spanning from 30 - 55 S, crossed the central meridian on Dec 20 and a high speed stream from this CH may arrive to Earth from Dec 22.

Сонячний вітер

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime, velocity ranging from 340 km/s to 380 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 7 nT. The fast solar wind originating from the negative polarity coronal hole (CH), possibly connected to the southern polar CH spanning from 30 - 55 S, which reached the central meridian in the morning of Dec 18 is expected to impact the Earth in the coming hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 2). It was locally quiet to unsettled conditions (K BEL 1 to 3). We expect to see unsettled to active conditions if the fast solar wind originating from the negative polarity coronal hole (CH), possibly connected to the southern polar CH spanning from 30 - 55 S, which reached the central meridian in the morning of Dec 18 impacts the Earth in the coming hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, is still fluctuating around the 1000 pfu threshold level, probably due to the enhanced solar wind speed on previous days. We expect such a condition to last during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal to moderate levels and is expected to decrease to normal level in the coming 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 149, за даними 04 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 21 Dec 2023

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	004
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	153 - За даними 05 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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