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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jan 09 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
09 Jan 2024	174	012
10 Jan 2024	176	008
11 Jan 2024	176	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C5.7-flare, with peak time 15:50 UTC on January 08, associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta). There are currently 9 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma), and NOAA AR 3540 (beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex regions on disk. Together with NOAA AR 3538, they have produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Additionally, one active region is rotating from the east limb and one is emerging in the south-east quadrant. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

Based on currently available coronagraph images, there were three CMEs detected in the past 24 hours (first detection by SOHO/LASCO C2 around 13:25 UTC on January 08, 16:12 UTC on January 08, and 01:25 UTC on January 09, respectively). For all the three CMEs, the source region was in the south-east quadrant of the solar disk (around E56S22). No clear Earth-directed component has been identified, and at most we expect a glancing blow in about 4 days. However, further analysis is on-going.

Корональні діри

Two small high latitude positive polarity coronal holes, one in the northern half of the Sun and the other in the southern half, finished crossing the central meridian in the early hours (UTC) of January 09. No impact from these coronal holes is expected at Earth.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE was between 315 km/s and 380 km/s. A small solar wind structure was observed around 18:00 UTC on January 08, which was associated with a minor increase in the solar wind speed and density. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 4 nT and 8 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (away from the Sun). In the next 24 hours, we expect similar slow solar wind conditions.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet with unsettled conditions (Kp 3 and K Bel 3) due to the prologued negative Bz conditions. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold and continues to gently decline. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days, although due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 144, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 08 Jan 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	196
Сонячний потік 10 см	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	004
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	159 - За даними 13 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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