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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jan 24 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
24 Jan 2024	183	005
25 Jan 2024	175	014
26 Jan 2024	170	017

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was high with nine M-class flares registering over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3561 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 36) produced eight of those flares: five yesterday (an M4 at 16:40 UTC; M1 at 12:58, 14:59, 18:44, and 20:01 UTC) and three today (all M1 at 00:38, 01:40, and 05:43 UTC). NOAA AR 3559 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 43) produced an M1 flare yesterday at 13:08 UTC. For the next 24 hours NOAA AR 3561 is expected to produce more M-class flares, while NOAA AR 2559 is likely to reduce its flaring activity to C-class level. There is also a small change of an isolated X-class flare in the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images today 01:36 UTC. It is associated with an M2 flare that took place at solar S16W48 and has small chance of directly affecting Earth's environment. However, a glancing blow from this CME is to be expected in the first half of Jan 28.

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are affected by a glancing blow delivered by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) launched at 21 Jan 00:24 UTC, that arrived earlier than predicted. The SW speed increased to approximately 450 km/s and has remained at this level since. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) has fluctuated between 2 and 12 nT, while its North-South component varied between -11 and 6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun initially, but turned to the away from the Sun direction as a result of the glancing blow. The SW conditions are now back to the slow SW regime and they are expected to remain at this state for the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to active (NOAA Kp 1+ to 4-) and locally quiet to unsettled (K BEL 1 to 3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to drop to unsettled or quiet levels in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, gradually dropped to background levels during the past 24 hours. It is likely that it will remain at these levels, however, there is still a chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 126, за даними 06 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 23 Jan 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	145 - За даними 14 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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