Перегляд архіву середа, 31 січня 2024

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jan 31 1236 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
31 Jan 2024	132	013
01 Feb 2024	135	006
02 Feb 2024	140	004

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 3559) has now turned over the north-west limb but still contributed to the low-level flaring activity and produced the largest flare of the period, which was a C5.7 flare with peak time 17:39 UTC January 30. Catania sunspot group 54 (NOAA 3567) also produced multiple C-class flares. This region is one of the more complex regions on disk and showed signs of further flux emergence. Catania Sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 3565) also produced low-level C-class flares. The remaining regions, Catania sunspot groups 50, 51 and 53 (NOAA Active Regions 3566, 3569 and 3568, respectively), were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to decrease slightly and to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, isolated M-class flares remain possible.

Корональні викиди маси

No new Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

A small positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is beginning to cross the central meridian on January 31.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind speed remained slightly elevated, with values between 430 and 500 km/s, likely due to the week influence of the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal holes which crossed the central meridian on January 27. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 5nT. Bz ranged between -4 and +4nT. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected continue to be slightly enhanced on January 31, due to the ongoing weak influence of the solar wind from the negative polarity coronal holes and due to a possible ICME shock arrival. From February 01 the solar wind speed is expected to decrease.

Геомагнетизм

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (local K Bel 1-3 and NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels with active conditions may be possible on January 31 due to a possible ICME shock arrival.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux continues to decrease and, although still elevated, remained below the 10pfu threshold. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease over the next 24 hours, with a possibility of another increase due to the possible shock arrival from the January 29 CME.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 102, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 30 Jan 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	080
Сонячний потік 10 см	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	007
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	074 - За даними 23 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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