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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Feb 06 1259 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
06 Feb 2024	179	008
07 Feb 2024	177	004
08 Feb 2024	174	009

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels in the past 24 hours. There are eleven numbered active regions on the visible solar disc. The strongest activity was a long duration M4.2 flare, start time 02:37 UTC, peak time 02:37 UTC, end time 03:31 UTC on Feb 6th. This activity was produced by NOAA AR 3575 (beta- gamma-delta), which is the second largest and the most complex region on disc. NOAA AR 3576 (beta-delta) remains the largest region despite undergoing some decay. Two new active regions have been numbered, namely NOAA AR 3577 (beta) and NOAA AR 3578 (alpha). NOAA AR 3565 (beta) has shown some decay. The remaining active regions are magnetically simple and have shown either no development or decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next days with slightly decreased probabilities for further M-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

A south-westward partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was registered in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery lifting off the solar surface around 02:36 UTC on Feb 6th. The inhomogeneity of the eruption and the data gaps in STEREO imagery make the assessment of the true CME velocity more challenging. The CME is currently undergoing further analysis, but preliminary results suggest that the bulk of the ejection will miss Earth, while a mild glancing blow arrival might be possible late on Feb 8th. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were enhanced under the continuous influence of a high speed stream originating from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity exceeded 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained slightly elevated, reaching a maximum 11.2 nT with a minimum Bz of -9.2 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at mildly elevated levels throughout Feb 6th and possibly Feb 7th, and start declining towards slow solar wind background until a possible glancing blow arrival in the UTC evening on Feb 8th.

Геомагнетизм

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail throughout Feb 7th with possible isolated active levels. Small chances for minor geomagnetic storms late on Feb 8th in case the potential glancing blow from the Feb 6th ICME arrives to Earth.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was slightly enhanced due to the solar eruptive activity originating from NOAA AR 3575. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue to increase over the day with small chances of exceeding the minor radiation storm threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux might remain slightly enhanced, pending new eruptive solar activity.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 157, за даними 09 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 05 Feb 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	007
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	162 - За даними 16 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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