Перегляд архіву середа, 14 лютого 2024

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Feb 14 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
14 Feb 2024	191	015
15 Feb 2024	187	031
16 Feb 2024	184	015

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with two M-class flares and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flares were an M1.0 flare, peaking at 03:10 UTC on Feb 14, associated with NOAA AR 3582 (beta) and an M1.0 flare, peaking at 07:35 UTC on Feb 14, associated with NOAA AR 3576 (beta-gamma-delta). NOAA AR 3576 remains the most complex and active AR on the visible solar disc. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3584 (beta). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flaring and a chance for an isolated X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions, with some transient features having a mild influence. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s and 500 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 8 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 6 nT. Similar solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with a chance for of a week enhancement on Feb 14 due to the possible arrival of CMEs from Feb 9th and Feb 10th.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 1 to 4) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels, with a slight probability of active or minor storm periods over the next 24 hours, due to possible CMEs arrivals.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been gradually decreasing over the last 24 hours but remained above the 10pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to decline towards nominal levels during the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 151, за даними 07 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 13 Feb 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	146
Сонячний потік 10 см	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	015
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	012
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	133 - За даними 26 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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