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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Feb 16 1230 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
16 Feb 2024	176	007
17 Feb 2024	174	007
18 Feb 2024	172	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity reached high levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an impulsive X2.5 flare, with peak time 06:53 UTC on February 16, associated with NOAA AR 3576. Type II and Type IV radio emission were detected at 06:53 during the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3576, that is expected to rotate off the disk over the next day, is the most complex active region on the visible solar disc and was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. The region also produced M1.8 and M1.5 flares with peak time at 17:07 UTC on February 15 and 02:51 UTC on February 16. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3583 (beta) and by NOAA 3588 (beta). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares possible and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 09:24 UTC on February 15 and 01:36 UTC on February 16, directed primarily to the South from Earth's perspective. Both CMEs have no clear on disc signatures and are deemed to be back-sided, with no expected impact on Earth. A CME was detected at 03:12 UTC on Feb 16, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a filament eruption, observed from 00:48 UTC on February 16, in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 in the north-west quadrant of the visible solar disk. The CME is directed primarily to the North from the Earth's perspective and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. Another wide CME was detected at 09:24 UTC on February 16, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a X2.5 flare, originating from NOAA AR 3576, along with a Type II and Type IV radio bursts. The CME is directed primarily to the South-West from the Earth's perspective. No clear Earth- directed component has been identified. However, further analysis is on- going.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 490 km/s to 410 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 9 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -3 nT and 4 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next days.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet levels during the next days.

Рівні потоку протонів

In the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux levels remained slightly elevated but stayed below threshold levels. The 10 MeV proton flux began to increase around 07:30 UTC on Feb 16, following the GOES X2.5 flare from NOAA AR 3576. Due to moderate flaring activity, it is possible that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux may exceed this threshold over the next 24 hours if there are any further high-energy flares and eruptions.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 150, за даними 04 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 15 Feb 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	158
Сонячний потік 10 см	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	004
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	003
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	144 - За даними 14 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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