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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Mar 15 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10 см потік	Ap
15 Mar 2024	127	010
16 Mar 2024	120	007
17 Mar 2024	115	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

There are seven active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 is rotating over the west limb, but still producing most of the flaring activity. The strongest flare was a long duration C6.0 from this AR, peaking at 06:19 UTC. The remaining visible regions have simple magnetic field configuration (alpha or beta). More C-class flares are expected, M-class flares are possible.

Корональні викиди маси

There were two partial halo CMEs observed in the latest coronagraph data. The first one was seen by LASCO C2 at 05:08 UTC on 14 March, with an angular width of about 140 degrees, directed towards the east. The second one, observed by LASCO C2 at 02:10 on 15 March with an angular width of 150 degrees and directed towards the west (related to flaring activity from NOAA AR 3599 over the west limb). Both of these eruptions occurred close to the limb but are mostly backsided, the corresponding ICMEs are not expected to arrive to the Earth. A narrower eruption was seen at 09:18 UT on 14 March in LASCO C2, originating from a filament eruption and directed to the north; it is not expected to arrive at Earth.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 410 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active both global and locally (NOAA_Kp up to 4 and K_BEL up to 4). Quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The 10 MeV proton flux at Earth increased as a result of the partial halo CME from 02:10 UTC, directed to the west and originated at NOAA AR 3599. At the moment of writing the flux is still below the 10 pfu threshold, but increasing.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 050, за даними 14 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 14 Mar 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	091
Сонячний потік 10 см	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	009
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	010
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	069 - За даними 24 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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