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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Mar 22 1232 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
22 Mar 2024	181	010
23 Mar 2024	178	004
24 Mar 2024	172	004

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours with NOAA Active Regions (AR) 3614 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 21), 3615 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 22), and 3617 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 27) producing almost all the C-class flaring activity. Although NOAA AR 3615 has lost some of its magnetic complexity, it is still capable of producing an isolated M-class flare for the next 24 hours. Also NOAA AR 3617 has now become active, hence C-class and possibly M-class flaring activity is expected from this region in the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME launched yesterday at 18:36 UTC can been seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images. It is associated with a filament eruption seen on disk and is not expected to be geo-effective.

Сонячний вітер

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained affected by the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of yesterday 01:50 UTC. The SW speed ranged from 310 to 370 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) varied between 6 and 13 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -12 and 11 nT and remained at low negative values for many hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied between being directed towards the Sun to be directed away from the Sun. The effects of the CME are expected to wane in the next 24 hours and the conditions to change towards a slow SW regime.

Геомагнетизм

The global geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5) 24 hours ago and have since dropped to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 3). During the same period the local conditions raised to active levels (K BEL 4) and gradually dropped to quiet conditions (K BEL 2). In the next 24 hours they are expected to continue dropping both globally and locally and reach quiet levels globally.

Рівні потоку протонів

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 155, за даними 07 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 21 Mar 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	219
Сонячний потік 10 см	197
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	022
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	025
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	168 - За даними 19 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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