Перегляд архіву неділя, 31 березня 2024

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Mar 31 1240 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
31 Mar 2024	135	014
01 Apr 2024	129	016
02 Apr 2024	132	010

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

The solar flaring activity was at moderate. The largest flare of the period was a long duration M9.4 flare with peak time 21:16 UTC March 30. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which has now almost fully rotated over the west limb. Two new, small regions have emerged, one in the east numbered NOAA AR 3624 and one (as yet unnumbered) near N18E11. These along with Catania regions 24 and 28 (NOAA AR 3617 and 3619) are simple and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with possible further flares from Catania region 22 as it remains just over the limb, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity northern polar coronal hole that extends down to midlatitudes began to cross the central meridian on March 31.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions the arrival of the high-speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to traverse the central meridian on March 27. The solar wind speed gradually increased from values around 315 km/s to around 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field gradually increased, reaching a maximum value of 14nT at 23:20 UTC March 30 before decreasing to values around 5nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -10 nT at 00:12 UTC March 31. The interplanetary magnetic field phi was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The Earth is expected to continue to be under the influence of this high-speed stream on March 31 and April 01.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled to active levels (NOAA Kp 4- and Local K Bel 4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels on March 31 and April 01.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase from flares associated with Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615).

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels over the next day.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 066, за даними 19 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 30 Mar 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	140
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	005
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	005
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	048 - За даними 22 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

Весь час у UTC

<< На сторінку денного огляду