Перегляд архіву четвер, 2 травня 2024

Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 May 02 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
02 May 2024	129	010
03 May 2024	125	011
04 May 2024	121	014

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.9-flare, with peak time 14:40 UTC on May 01 associated with NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3654 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and is rotating over the west limb. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the second largest and is responsible for most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3664 (beta- gamma) has rotated over the east limb and produced some minor C-class flaring. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 06:36 UTC on May 01, shows a possible glancing blow late on May 04.

Корональні діри

A small positive polarity low-latitude coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may impact the Earth on May 04.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 3 nT and 13 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -12 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 324 to 407 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (Kp 3 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 129, за даними 18 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 01 May 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	010
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	010
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	105 - За даними 22 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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