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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 May 24 1231 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10 см потік	Ap
24 May 2024	176	014
25 May 2024	174	017
26 May 2024	172	007

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

There are seven visible ARs on the solar disk. Solar activity is high, there were five M-class flares in the last 24 hours, from NOAA 3679 (beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration), NOAA 3685 (beta gamma magnetic field configuration) and NOAA 3689 (beta magnetic field configuration). The strongest one was an M2.4 flare peaking at 13:20 UTC on 23 May from AR 3679. For the next 24 hours, more M-class flares can be expected and X-class flares are possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A large filament erupted in the SE quadrant, creating a CME first seen by LASCO C2 at 01:12 UT on 23 May, followed by other minor eruptions in the vicinity. The CME angular width is about 80 degrees and the speed of about 400 km/s. This CME is directed mostly towards the SE and will most likely miss the Earth, but a glancing blow cannot be discarded on the second half of 27 May.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere has developed a low latitudinal extension that traversed the central meridian on 21 May. A possible arrival of high speed steam from this coronal hole could arrive at the Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 390 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. Slightly disturbed conditions (with the interplanetary magnetic field reaching 10 nT) have been observed in the last hours, this may be an early indication of the possible upcoming arrival of a high speed stream (with a mild effect) from a negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere, which can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions reached active levels planetary (Kp up to 4) and unsettled locally (K_Bel up to 3). If the high speed solar wind stream expected for today arrives, up to minor storm conditions can be expected in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

The 10 MeV GOES-18 proton flux was below threshold in the past 24 hours. Since some of the regions producing the M-class flaring are close to the west limb, a proton event cannot be discarded in the next 24 hours.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels for the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 120, за даними 06 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 23 May 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	154
Сонячний потік 10 см	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	012
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	012
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	135 - За даними 24 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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