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Щоденний бюлетень про сонячну та геомагнітну активність від SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jun 02 1237 UTC

Прогноз SIDC

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Геомагнетизм

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10 см потік	Ap
02 Jun 2024	195	008
03 Jun 2024	204	010
04 Jun 2024	212	028

Сонячно-активні області та спалахи

Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an X1.0 flare with peak time 18:36 UTC June 01 from NOAA AR 3697, the most complex region on the disk. This region produced the majority of the flaring activity including an M7.3 flare with peak time 19:39 UTC June 01. Three new regions were numbered, including NOAA 3700 in the western hemisphere which emerged quickly. The rest of the regions were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for further X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed in LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery. The first was a full halo CME first detected from 19:00 UTC June 01 in LASCO/C2 data. Initially reported to be associated with the X1 flare, this CME may in fact likely be related to a back-sided event and will therefore not impact Earth. A second narrower partial halo CME directed to the south-east can be seen from 20:00 UTC June 01 in LASCO/C2 data. This is likely associated with the M7.3 flare with peak time 19:39 UTC June 01 and associated with Type II and Type Iv radio emissions. Preliminary analysis suggests that these CME will have an Earth directed component and may impact Earth from early on June 04, but further analysis is ongoing.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind reflected slow solar wind conditions with the solar wind speed decreasing from values around 350 to 325 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 4nT, with a minimum Bz value of -4nT. Generally slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with slight enhancements in the wind speed possible due to solar wind associated with small positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on May 29.

Геомагнетизм

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 and Local K Bel 2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels in the next 24 hours.

Рівні потоку протонів

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next day. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase due to strong flaring from NOAA AR 3697.

Потоки електронів на геостаціонарній орбіті

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next days.

Розрахунок міжнародної кількості сонячних плям станом на сьогодні (ISN): 204, за даними 13 станцій.

Сонячні індекси за 01 Jun 2024

Число Вольфа, Катанія	///
Сонячний потік 10 см	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	008
Розрахунковий індекс Ap	006
Розрахункова міжнародна кількість сонячних плям	185 - За даними 12 станцій

Зведення помітних подій

Надано Центром Аналізу Даних Сонячного Впливу (SIDC)© - SIDC - Оброблено SpaceWeatherLive

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